How much the trailing candidate would have to win all the remaining votes by. The shaded area is their path; it shrinks as the bar rises.
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Turnout
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What came in
New votes CNN posted since the previous check (checked every minute), by county, with how that batch voted.
Waiting for the next update.
Election Day votes only
Votes cast today, separated from early and mail votes. Source: Texas Secretary of State, which reports more slowly than CNN.
Election Day by county
County
Race
Today's votes
Today
2024 Election Day
Shift
Counties
County
% in
Votes
2026
2024 Senate
Shift
How to read this. "Our forecast" is the Texas 2026 Scenario Lab working case, fixed before polls closed.
"On pace" compares each reporting county with its own 2024 Senate result and projects statewide.
The low end assumes people who voted today did not shift from 2024; the high end assumes every voter shifted like the counted votes.
Estimates firm up as more counties report.
"Election Day votes only" subtracts each county's early and mail votes from its total. "Statewide estimate" applies the counted counties' shift to the 2024 statewide Election Day result (Cruz +5.4).
"Our forecast for today's voters" is the forecast's Election Day net votes divided by its expected Election Day votes.
"Path to win" divides the current lead by the two-party votes still out, using CNN's estimate of the expected total; the chart adds a point whenever CNN's statewide count changes (checked every minute).
Results: CNN and Texas Secretary of State (unofficial). 2024 and 2022 comparisons: Texas Secretary of State. Positive numbers favor the Democrat.